CONCORD, N.H. – Just over a week after Iowans faced dangerously cold temperatures to attend the first-in-the-nation caucuses, New Hampshire voters will head to precincts Tuesday and will face the opposite side of the weather spectrum.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, warmer air will start to filter into the Granite State, but it will not preclude chances of ice or snow from being present on election day.
The leading edge of moisture that will impact parts of the South with heavy rainfall could approach the Granite State before polls close, but any precipitation is expected to remain relatively light through most of the day.
“The cold weather suppressed turnout in Iowa, but I don’t think it changed any results,” said Dr. David Richards, an associate professor and political chair at the University of Lynchburg in Virginia. “They were pretty much in line with polling suggestions.”
Typically, turnout for primary contests in New Hampshire is at least double that of Iowa, so the forecast for what could be labeled as a reasonable weather day will likely contribute to higher turnout.
“I think a lot of people are going to show up,” Richards said. “Instead of at a caucus where you sit in a room and negotiate and take a couple of different votes through the evening – this will be just like voting in any election. You go there and vote, and the polls will be open all day.”
WEATHER CAN IMPACT VOTER TURNOUT
Past weather events may foreshadow what to expect for Tuesday’s Democratic and Republican presidential primaries.
New Hampshirites have never faced blizzard conditions on primary day, and that will remain the case for at least another four years.
In at least three-fourths of all the contests held since 1952, daily high temperatures in populated regions of the state have been at or above average. According to studies, warmer weather could have a role in voter turnout.
Research published in the journal Frontiers in Psychology found that some voting groups’ turnout increased by 0.14% for every 1.8-degree jump in temperature.
One location in the Granite State that won’t participate in any type of warm-up is Mount Washington, which sits at some 6,288 feet above sea level.
The mountaintop is home to North America’s most extreme weather, with a reported wind chill of -108 degrees in 2023 and a 231-mph wind gust in 1934.
The mountain peak is not a home for any permanent residents and is about a half-hour drive outside the town of Gorham.
Gorham sits at an elevation of about 800 feet and is expecting a high near 32 degrees Tuesday, with scattered snow showers arriving after sunset.
“Voters in New Hampshire take presidential elections very seriously, and that’s part of the reason the turnout could be as big as it will be,” Richards said.
After New Hampshire, the next contests will be held in Nevada, the Virgin Islands and South Carolina, so chances are high that voters and candidates will face warmer weather than during the first two events.