A multi-day wet weather event along the Gulf Coast and Southeast promises to deliver the heaviest precipitation of the year, with many communities seeing between 3-5″ of rain and isolated areas seeing more.
The FOX Forecast Center says the same weather pattern that is poised to help deliver a warmup through much of the Lower 48 will allow for moisture to pile up along the Gulf Coast, leading to an eventual flash flood threat.
Multiple waves of moisture are expected to impact the Interstate 10 corridor, and a few could have some embedded thunderstorms with plenty of lightning and gusty winds.
“The warmer the air, the greater capacity to hold water, but also to create some instability and ignite some thunderstorms in those cities all along the Gulf Coast,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Steve Bender.
The greatest chances of rainfall will occur between Sunday and Thursday, but not every hour of every day will be wet.
Forecast models show at least three plumes of moisture developing late in the weekend and through the workweek, which will be the main focus of the heavy rainfall.
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Forecast models show a wide swath of the Gulf Coast and Southeast could pick up 3-5″ of rainfall, with isolated areas approaching 10 inches.
Both Houston and New Orleans are included in the excessive rainfall zone, where totals could reach around half a foot by the end of the week.
As accumulations mount, so will the potential for flash flooding, which will likely require watches and warnings to be issued during the workweek.
Many of the communities that stand to see rainfall are dealing with a precipitation deficit, so the rainfall could be welcome news.
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With the exception of light freezing rain where the precipitation meets the cold air in the Middle Mississippi Valley at the start of the event, the precipitation will fall in the liquid variety due to warming temperatures.
Yet ice can form with temperatures that are above freezing if colder air exists closer to the ground level.
Temperatures are expected to moderate through the workweek with highs reaching the 60s to the 70s for many.
Where the greatest extent of cloud cover and rain exists, there will be a tendency for temperatures to remain cooler compared to communities that will get much more sunshine. But even with the clouds, highs and lows are still expected to remain above average for the foreseeable future.