After forecast models have hinted for weeks about tropical activity in the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area of the Atlantic Ocean for possible tropical development.
At last report from the NHC, the future disturbance had a low chance of developing during the next seven days. That chance could increase as the timing of the event gets closer.
While it is too early to know for certain where the possible system is headed, forecast models indicate it will meander off the coast of Central America for a period of time before being pulled to the north and east by a significant trough along the East Coast.
If a tropical storm forms, it would be named Vince – the second-to-last name on the 2023 Atlantic basin naming list.
WHY THE HURRICANE SEASON WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NOVEMBER
Despite an El Niño weather pattern, which is known to increase shear over the western Atlantic basin during the final months of the season, NOAA said conditions look generally favorable for tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean Sea and the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Due to the pattern known as the Central American Gyre, forecast models generally have a difficult time accurately predicting the formation of tropical cyclones.
According to researchers at the National Weather Service’s Environmental Modeling Center, the Global Forecast System computer forecast model – commonly known as the GFS – is notorious for predicting the formation of tropical cyclones in the western Caribbean that never actually develop.
The GFS was the first major model to sniff out possible tropical development this go-around, so it is unknown whether the disturbance is a phantom storm system that will never materialize or if the model deserves recognition for determining the pattern first.
WHEN IS THE TYPICAL LAST HURRICANE STRIKE ON THE US COAST
The possible development is late in the season but not unusual. According to climatology, the last tropical cyclone of the Atlantic basin season forms about Nov. 19. Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.
Fortunately for the Lower 48, the normal time period for a possible direct strike would be over by the time the disturbance would form.
The record for the latest hurricane strike on the mainland U.S. is Kate’s landfall in Florida on Nov. 21, 1985.
Those in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico would likely have to monitor the system for possible impacts during Thanksgiving week.