The FOX Forecast Center is tracking the potential for multiple days of severe storms across the South this week after the region was largely spared from significant severe weather outbreaks in May during what is typically the most active time of year for tornadoes.
An unusual weather pattern for June will steer a stronger-than-average jet stream from the Pacific Ocean into portions of the South, fueling an environment favorable for organized severe weather. This pattern sets up frequently in the spring but is a bit unusual for the middle of June as the atmosphere undergoes its transition to summer.
“In fact, we’re (also) going to have some pretty decent wind shear,” FOX Weather meteorologist Craig Herrera said. “You factor in that dryline coming off of New Mexico and Texas, bumping into all that hot, humid air, and then we’ve got the chance for these storms to really fire up as we go through the middle part of the week.”
HERE’S WHERE TORNADOES ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN EACH MONTH
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could impact a corridor from North Texas and southern Oklahoma eastward to the Gulf Coast states and northward up the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. A separate area of severe storms is possible from the western Texas Panhandle to the Colorado Front Range.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main threats with these storms Monday afternoon and evening.
Some of the larger metro areas facing the threat of severe weather include western portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, New Orleans, Jackson in Mississippi, Mobile in Alabama, Tallahassee in Florida, Raleigh-Durham in North Carolina and Richmond in Virginia.
Organized clusters of severe thunderstorms could develop from Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana, with the potential for some strong to severe storms also extending east through the central Gulf Coast states.
A few of the storms could be supercells capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated tornadoes.
The Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, Shreveport in Louisiana, Jackson in Mississippi and Birmingham and Montgomery in Alabama are a few of the larger cities that could see severe storms.
WE’VE ENTERED AMERICA’S MOST ACTIVE TIME OF YEAR FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM SEVERE STORMS
As the storm system responsible for severe weather earlier in the week slides east, additional rounds of severe thunderstorms could fire up across the Southeast on Wednesday and Thursday.
While the exact areas at risk remain uncertain since this is still a few days away, damaging wind gusts will likely be the primary threat in the region.
SCORCHING SUMMER PREDICTED ACROSS US WITH NO AREAS FORECAST TO BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
The daily threats of thunderstorms this week could buck a trend of below-average severe storm activity that has been observed for several weeks. Nearly a dozen states east of the Rockies had no reports of severe weather during May, which was the quietest since at least 2004.
The potential for a less-active severe weather season was expected by the FOX Forecast Center, with the exit of La Niña and a march toward El Niño.
Research completed by various private, government and educational groups has found that neutral-ENSO conditions – neither El Niño nor La Niña – tend to produce tornado and hail events that are more in line with average or slightly below average, and El Niños can be even quieter.